George Bush said his plan was designed to keep Saddam Hussein from pounding the rebellious Shiite Muslims of southern Iraq, including thousands of fighting men who have holed up in the vast marshes around the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Bush claimed he was enforcing United Nations Resolution 688, which orders Saddam to stop persecuting his own people but does not specifically authorize armed enforcement. Many of America’s Arab allies opposed the plan, fearing it would dismember Iraq. Saddam even found some “marsh Arabs” who could be induced to demonstrate in his favor. But Bill Clinton said the no-fly zone was the “appropriate thing to do.” Bush’s supporters in the region applauded what they assumed was his real motive. “Everyone knows the United States doesn’t give a hoot about the marsh Arabs,” said Abdullah Alshayeji, a political scientist in Kuwait. “It’s a way to tighten the screws on Saddam.”
“The Americans think they can change the leadership of the country or embarrass it,” Hamid Yusef Hammadi, the Iraqi information minister, said in Baghdad. Bush himself hinted as much. “We continue to look forward to working with a new leadership in Baghdad,” he said. Washington hoped to convince other Iraqi leaders that they would lose control over their country if Saddam remained in power. But Bush has tried, and failed, to force the dictator out ever since the end of the Persian Gulf War, and the best that could be said for the latest attempt was that it wouldn’t work overnight.
The principal risk was that the United States could be drawn into escalation if Saddam’s ground forces continue to attack the Shiites. Washington has no desire to insert ground troops of its own; although a contingent of U.S. Army Green Berets is currently in Kuwait, Pentagon sources say the soldiers would be sent into southern Iraq only to rescue downed American pilots. But if Saddam pushes too hard in the south, U.S. warplanes might have to knock out Iraqi tanks and artillery, a more dangerous assignment than shooting down aircraft. NEWSWEEK has learned that 30 more air force officers from Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina were secretly flown to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, last week to help with contingency planning for a wider air war over Iraq.
Another kind of showdown could develop this week, when U.N. nuclear inspectors return to Baghdad. The Bush administration is urging the United Nations to demand access to an Iraqi ministry. Washington doesn’t expect a confrontation, but if the Iraqis balk at any inspection, as they did last July, senior Bush aides say plans are in place for punitive bombing. In an unpredictable situation, Iraq’s only specific threat so far is to expel about 75 U.N. aid workers and about 100 guards who protect them. But with the Iraqis talking about “holy war,” precautions are being taken all over. Israel, which does not expect to be attacked, is nonetheless urging citizens to keep gas masks handy and install new filters in them, just in case Iraq lobs some of its remaining Scud missiles in their direction.
Short of a wider war, the administration hopes the no-fly zone will achieve three main results:
One danger is that the flight ban might not stop the repression of the Shiites in the south. Another is that it might succeed too well, opening the Pandora’s box of partition. Alshayeji says the allied interdiction could be “a prelude to the fragmentation of Iraq, which can only strengthen Iran. At least Saddam is a devil we know, and he’s impaired.” Arab solidarity appeals even to some of Bush’s best friends. “Egypt has a national-an Arab-responsibility to press to keep the eastern flank of the Arab world intact,” says a senior government official in Cairo.
For the moment, Saddam’s smartest move might be to do nothing. “We will let the Americans fly up and down the gulf and over Iraq until they get tired and go home,” says a senior Iraqi official. A White House staffer concedes it will take time for allied pressure to help expel Saddam from office. “I don’t think any one of these actions going on right now will have him pop out of the toaster,” he says. Ever resilient, Saddam still has a chance to cling to power longer than George Bush does.
