The expected collision has made headlines recently after astronomers came to the conclusion that the rocket booster probably belongs to China and was used during the Chang’e 5-T1 lunar mission back in 2014.

Up until that point, the rocket booster was thought to have belonged to SpaceX following the launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite in 2015 atop one of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets.

About a month after that launch astronomers found a near-Earth object in space that was initially thought to have been an asteroid until it was discovered to be orbiting the Earth rather than the sun, suggesting human origin.

Further data confirmed that the object had passed by the moon two days after the DSCOVR launch. Thus, astronomers such as Bill Gray of the Project Pluto astronomical software development group came to the conclusion that the rocket booster was from the Falcon 9 rocket at the time.

However, this changed in 2022 when NASA engineer Jon Giorgini noticed that the orbital data did not look consistent with that theory. He alerted Gray, who revised his findings and agreed that the object was actually more likely to be Chang’e 5-T1 rocket stage.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin denied this, claiming on February 21 this year that the rocket had “fallen through the Earth’s atmosphere in a safe manner and burnt up completely.”

In any case, orbital calculations show that the rocket stage is expected to collide with the moon on March 4 at around 7:25 a.m. ET, according to a post by Gray on the Project Pluto website. It is expected to be travelling at a speed of nearly 6,000 miles per hour.

However, we will not be able to observe the impact. This is because the rocket is set to collide with the far side of the moon, which does not face the Earth.

A shame, since Gray told CNN that an observer would see “a big flash” followed by chunks of debris being hurled dozens of miles.

Still, the aftermath might be visible. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will not be in position to capture the impact when it happens, but it might be possible to identify the crater afterwards.

Though the rocket collision might serve as a reminder of the importance of the responsible use of space, it will not be the first time that humans have crashed spacecraft into the moon.

As recently as 2014, NASA crashed its LADEE spacecraft into the lunar surface at a speed of around 3,600 miles per hour after the spacecraft had spent months orbiting the moon to study its thin atmosphere and dust.